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TL;DR
Intel shares fell about 29% on Oct. 30, 2026, after the chipmaker forecast fourth-quarter revenue below analyst expectations and a sharp decline in gross margin. The U.S. government’s 433.3 million shares lost about $12 billion in market value that day, but their estimated value remained well above the $8.9 billion the government paid.
Intel shares fell about 29% on Friday, Oct. 30, after the company forecast fourth-quarter revenue and margins below analyst expectations, reducing the estimated market value of the U.S. government’s 433.3 million-share stake by roughly $12 billion in one trading session. The shares closed at $65.76, down from $92.07 on Thursday; based on that closing price, the government’s stake was worth about $28.5 billion, still substantially more than its $8.9 billion purchase cost.
Intel reported third-quarter revenue of $16.5 billion, up 21% from a year earlier, and adjusted earnings per share of $0.52, above its own $0.38 guidance. Its Data Center and AI business grew 78% to $7.3 billion, which Intel described as the segment’s strongest growth in 15 years. The results were released after the market closed on Thursday.
The outlook overshadowed the quarter. Intel forecast fourth-quarter revenue of $15 billion to $16 billion, below the roughly $17.1 billion analysts expected, according to LSEG data cited by CNBC. The company also projected adjusted gross margin of 38%, down from 44.1% in the third quarter, and adjusted earnings per share of $0.25, compared with the $0.43 analysts expected, CNBC reported.
Yahoo Finance’s closing-price calculation put Intel’s one-day market-value decline at nearly $140 billion. The U.S. government bought its 433.3 million shares in August 2025 for $20.47 each, or about $8.9 billion, using chip grants Intel had been promised, according to the source report. The shares were valued at about $39.9 billion at Thursday’s close and $28.5 billion at Friday’s close. These are market-value estimates, not a realized gain or loss.
Infographic 01 · One day, one stake
One trading day cost Washington more than it paid
Intel's stock fell about 29% on Friday after a weak forecast. Here is what that did to the shares the US government bought in August 2025, and how the price compares with what other buyers paid.
The government’s stake, on paper
433.3 million shares × price
- PaidAug 2025, at $20.47 a share$8.9B
- Thursday's close29 Oct 2026, $92.07$39.9B
- Friday's close30 Oct 2026, $65.76$28.5B
The one-day loss (about $11.4B) was larger than the $8.9B the government paid. The stake is still worth roughly three times its cost.
What different buyers paid per share
Red line: Friday’s close, $65.76
- US governmentAug 2025 · 433.3M shares$20.47
- SoftBankSep 2025 · 87M shares$23.00
- Nvidiaagreed Sep 2025 · 215M shares$23.28
- Public offeringAug 2026 · about 242M shares$95.00
2025 buyers are far above water; buyers of the August 2026 offering are about 31% below their price (my arithmetic).
Market prices as reported by Yahoo Finance and CNBC for 29–30 October 2026; no licensed price feed. Stake values: Yahoo Finance’s arithmetic with 433.3 million shares. Purchase prices from Intel’s 10-Q and the August 2025 agreement.
Sources: Yahoo Finance, 30 Oct · Yahoo Finance (stake), 30 Oct · CNBC, 30 Oct · Intel 10-Q, 30 Oct · Intel 8-K, 22 Aug 2025.
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A $12 Billion Paper Loss for Washington
The sell-off shows how quickly a government’s large corporate holding can move with market expectations. The estimated value of Washington’s position fell by about $12 billion in one session, according to CNBC’s calculation, but the decline did not erase the investment’s reported paper gain: at Friday’s closing price, the stake was still worth about three times its $8.9 billion cost.
The figures matter because the government’s purchase tied public support for Intel to an equity stake. A lower share price reduces the stake’s market value, while a higher one increases it; neither change alone establishes what the government will ultimately recover. The supplied material does not state that the government sold shares or booked a loss. For investors and the chip industry, Intel’s forecast also points to a tension in the AI boom: demand for server processors is rising, while memory costs and weaker PC demand may weigh on another major part of Intel’s business.
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AI Demand Meets PC Cost Pressure
The results presented a mixed picture. Intel’s Data Center and AI revenue rose 78%, but PC chip revenue fell 5% in the third quarter. The company expects PC revenue to decline by more than 20% from the third quarter to the fourth, according to the source report. Intel CEO Lip-Bu Tan said system prices had increased significantly year to date, linking the pressure to higher memory costs as AI data centers absorb supply.
The company also cited a deadly accident at its factory in Israel, which the source report said would reduce fourth-quarter revenue by about $300 million. The report describes Intel’s share drop as its worst since the 1970s: Yahoo Finance compared closing prices back to May 1973 and found only one worse day, July 5, 1974. That historical comparison applies to Intel’s share-price performance, not to the government’s investment.
Intel’s stock had risen sharply earlier in 2026, reaching a record on June 22, according to Yahoo Finance’s calculation. Even after Friday’s fall, the source report said it remained nearly 80% higher for the year, while down by more than half from that peak. Those figures describe the share price over different periods and do not change the size of the government’s original purchase.
““Not fixed yet.””
— D.A. Davidson, as reported by CNBC
The Stake’s Future Value Is Unknown
The government’s reported $28.5 billion stake value is based on Friday’s closing share price. It can change with Intel’s stock price, and the supplied information does not establish whether or when the government might sell, how it would treat the holding, or what value it will ultimately realize. No sale or realized loss is reported.
Intel’s forecast also leaves open how long memory-price pressure will affect PC purchases, whether the company can produce enough server chips to meet demand, and whether outside customers will commit to using its factories. The source report says Intel’s finance chief warned that positive free cash flow next year was unlikely, but it does not provide a revised timetable for when cash generation could improve.
Production, Memory Costs and Cash Flow
Investors will be watching Intel’s delivery against its fourth-quarter forecast, including revenue of $15 billion to $16 billion and adjusted gross margin of 38%. The next results should clarify whether demand for data-center chips can offset weakness in PCs and the reported disruption at the Israeli factory.
Other measures to watch are the pace of memory-cost changes, Intel’s ability to supply server processors, and commitments from outside customers to use its manufacturing capacity. The company’s warning that positive free cash flow next year is unlikely adds another issue for investors assessing its recovery. The source material does not identify a date for a new government decision on its shareholding.
Key Questions
How much did Intel shares fall?
Intel closed at $65.76 on Oct. 30, 2026, down about 29% from $92.07 the previous day.
How much did the U.S. government’s stake lose in value?
Based on the reported closing prices, the stake’s estimated market value fell from about $39.9 billion to $28.5 billion. CNBC put the one-day decline at about $12 billion. That is a change in market value, not a reported realized loss.
Is the government’s investment worth less than it paid?
No. At Friday’s closing price, the 433.3 million shares were estimated to be worth about $28.5 billion, compared with the reported purchase cost of $8.9 billion.
Why did Intel fall after reporting revenue growth?
Investors focused on the next-quarter forecast. Intel projected revenue below analyst expectations and adjusted gross margin falling to 38%, despite third-quarter revenue growth and a sharp increase in Data Center and AI sales.
What remains uncertain for Intel?
The duration of memory-cost pressure, Intel’s ability to meet server-chip demand, future factory customers, and the path to positive free cash flow remain uncertain in the supplied material.
Source: ThorstenMeyerAI.com
